This week, as the PGA TOUR starts a four-week run in the Sunshine State, we move from the crops of Hawaii, California, Arizona, and Mexico to the rich plains of Florida.
The PGA TOUR is starting an event on February 29th by taking a “leap” across the nation. Given that February 29th is a rare event, Thomas Gable, the director of Race & Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, was asked if he planned to place a prop bet this week on whether or not someone will shoot “29” for nine holes at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.
“What a fantastic concept for a prop. Maybe I should do it. I’ll get it priced up.” Gable Stated with enthusiasm.
More on that will come soon. We start with the person who is competing to win the tournament in the meantime.
Rory McIlroy, the winner in 2012 and the runner-up in 2014, leads the field this week and is the only player listed in the outright market at single-digit odds (+800 at BetMGM), but that doesn’t stop the bettors. “Outright money has been for Rory. Hopefully it has more to do with the fact that he is unquestionably the best player in the tournament than the fact that he won a 12-hole skins game a few days ago. We rarely see a favourite for a PGA TOUR event in the single digits during a season, but that doesn’t stop bettors from placing their bets.” Senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook Tristan Davis stated.
“So far, the top three players in the market—McIlroy, Cameron Young, and Eric Cole—have taken up just over 30% of the hold, indicating that this tournament is once again dominated by favourites. At marginally higher costs, Adam Svensson and Daniel Berger are also well-liked.” Davis stated
Renowned golf handicapper Jeff Sherman of Las Vegas agreed with Davis regarding Cole. “Eric Cole has the most tickets sold and money wagered this week, making him the star of the show. That basically sums up the noteworthy activity. There’s no denying that Eric Cole’s appeal to bettors is growing every week. That is also the case this week.”
Nick Bogdanovich, a Hall of Fame bookmaker, has seen a somewhat distinct pattern. “Sungjae Im is the largest liability we have. Robert MacIntyre and Rasmus Højgaard are also receiving some love.” Bogdanovich stated.
At The Borgata, Gable is seeing a little bit of everything. “Min Woo Lee at +3500 and Eric Cole at +2500 have been well-liked plays for the outright market. Billy Horschel at +8000, Akshay Bhatia at +6800, and Rasmus Højgaard at +5000 are a few longer shots that are being wagered, according to Gable.
Nicolai, Rasmus’s brother, led the pack in tickets sold at BetMGM and was one of the less expensive players in Mexico last week. It seems that bookmakers are on board with any Højgaard. Nicolai had a respectable start to the Mexico Open at Vidanta, but he soon lost steam and tied for 52nd place. McIlroy will be participating in this event for the first time in six years. Cole finished second last season at PGA National, falling to Chris Kirk in a playoff, and has a good deal of experience there outside of TOUR events. Berger missed over eighteen months of action due to injury before participating in three tournaments to start 2024. Nevertheless, he might be the biggest horse for this course, having finished second in 2015 and fourth in 2020 and 2022 consecutively.
Looking to the First Round Leader market, Gable has observed activity at his shop that goes beyond simple play.
Gable, who turns 21 this Friday at The Borgata, added, “We’ve seen respected money on Camilo Villegas at +17500, Sepp Straka at +5000, and Byeong Hun An at +4000.” Big congratulations to Thomas.
Former winners of the Cognizant Classic are Villegas and Straka. An placed 11th on the TOUR last year in the same category, while this season she is 32nd in the First Round Scoring Average. This year, An ranks fifth in Birdie Average.
Davis observed some reputable activity in the Head-to-Head Matchup market at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas. The 20-year industry veteran stated, “On a few, there have been some sharp moves.”
Davis noted, “Eric Cole to beat Sungjae Im has gone from -110 into -130. Min Woo Lee to beat Shane Lowry, from -110 into -130, and Rickie Fowler to beat Berger has moved from -105 into -115.”
In this market, Gable is going back to McIlroy.
“Cam Young (+155) vs. Rory McIlroy (-180) is the main event matchup. In that match-up, both the general public and a few well-known bookmakers are backing McIlroy. Furthermore, Justin Rose has been receiving money as a little dog at +110 over Luke List (-130).” he said.
